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- Back in Office? Here’s What’s Changed Downtown
Back in Office? Here’s What’s Changed Downtown
Commercial real estate rebounds while student housing takes a hit.
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Today, we’re covering
🏢 Return to Office is Driving Rent Recovery
😮💨 While GTA Rents Fall, Toronto Stays Pricey
🎓 Cap on Student Visas Hits Atlantic Schools Hard
💸 New Visa Rules Raise Financial Bar for Students
🤔 WTF of The Week
Read Time: 4 minutes
🏢 Return to Office Push Drives Rent Recovery
Downtown Toronto office availability rate dropped to 17.7% in Sept 2025, from 20.4% in Q3 2024
Net effective rent for top financial district towers hit $30.50/sq ft in Q2 2025, up 20% from $25.33/sq ft in Q2 2024
Brookfield Properties reports 98% occupancy across its downtown portfolio
Two major banks (Scotiabank and RBC) are actively seeking 850,000–1 million sq ft of new office space
Major tenants signing new leases include:
Fidelity: 150,000 sq ft at TD Centre
Interac: expanding into 50% more space at First Canadian Place
Blaney McMurtry LLP: signed a 10-year lease for 3 floors at Scotia Plaza
More employers are now mandating office attendance:
Big five banks: 4 days/week
Ontario government and Rogers: moving to 5 days/week in 2026 (source)
Why This Matters: The return to office is real, and it’s reshaping commercial real estate fast. Rising rents, high-profile lease signings, and tighter availability suggest renewed confidence in the office market.
🏢 How often are you currently going into the office? |
😮💨 While GTA Rents Fall, Toronto Stays Pricey
Despite rents easing across the GTA, Toronto remains the third-most expensive city to rent in Canada.
Toronto rents have fallen 3.3% year-over-year, with the avg unit now at $2,618.
Nearby GTA cities are dropping more drastically:
Mississauga rents down 9.7% (one-bedroom, YoY)
Vaughan rents down 13.5% (one-bedroom, YoY)
Toronto stands out as the only major city in Canada where the rental burden (rent as a % of income) has eased since before the pandemic.
This marks the 11th consecutive month of year-over-year national rent declines, the longest streak since the COVID-19 pandemic.
Condos are no longer investor cash cows, with supply outpacing demand and rent growth weakening.
Why This Matters: Toronto’s rental market has clearly shifted in favour of tenants, with softening rents and weaker investor returns on condos. Investors relying on short-term cash flow from high rents may need to reassess pricing or reposition units. (source)
🎓 Cap on Student Visas Hits Atlantic Schools Hard
Holland College has suspended 8 programs and downsized 3 more for Fall 2025 due to declining international student enrollment.
A federal cap on international student permits, reducing approved permits by 35% in 2024 and another 10% in 2025, down to 437,000.
The affected programs include ones tied to P.E.I.’s largest industries, such as tourism and hospitality.
Only graduates from programs tied to long-term labour shortages now qualify.
Peter Halpin of the Association of Atlantic Universities warns that this will lead to a talent drain and weaken regional growth.
A federal audit of the international student program is underway, with findings expected in 2026.
Why This Matters: Cash flow projections may tighten in overbuilt or student-heavy areas; conservative underwriting is key. Investors in cities with high public-sector employment (e.g., Ottawa) may benefit from more resilient rental demand. (source)
💸 New Visa Rules Raise Financial Bar for Students
Starting September 1, 2025, all new student visa applicants to Canada will be required to provide additional proof of financial support.
Under the new rules, a single student must now prove they have $23,000 in available funds.
This is an increase of $2,260 from the previous threshold, which was $20,635.
The government says the goal is to ensure that international students have enough resources to support themselves without struggling after arrival.
Why It Matters: Canada’s $2,260 increase to the student visa proof of funds looks significant on paper, but it barely covers a single month of rent in most major cities. It doesn’t truly reflect the real cost of living or ensure students are financially prepared once they arrive. The change seems more symbolic than practical, aimed at addressing political pressure rather than real economic conditions. (source)
🤔 WTF of the Week: WTF is up with housing starts?
Toronto and Vancouver housing starts are getting smoked. Meanwhile, Calgary and Edmonton are still going full throttle.
Feels like Alberta’s building boom might be getting ahead of itself.
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