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Canada's Winners & Losers
Three provinces defy the downturn, incoming mortgage shock, and Canada's immigration whiplash hits home
Today, we’re covering
📈 These Housing Markets Soared While Toronto Crashed
😬 2026 Mortgage Renewals Will Hurt
🔒Another REIT Traps Investors
🛑 Ford Stops Affordable Housing Near Transit
😲 WTF of The Week
Read Time: 5 minutes
📈 These Housing Markets Soared While Toronto Crashed
Source: Financial Post
The 411: While Ontario and BC housing markets continue to struggle, three provinces are defying the national downturn with near double-digit price growth. Newfoundland and Labrador, Saskatchewan, and Quebec are Canada's unexpected housing hotspots in 2026.
Canada's housing market ended 2025 with sales and prices down around 4%
Ontario was the weakest market, with Toronto condos losing almost all pandemic gains after nine straight quarters of decline
BC wasn't much better, with Vancouver seeing sales drop 4% and prices fall 10% in 2025
Newfoundland and Labrador posted nearly double-digit price growth for the second straight year
Saskatchewan saw average home prices rise 9% in 2025, driven by firm job growth, a strong economy, and affordable housing
Quebec City led the nation with a 17% price increase in 2025, fueled by elevated household savings, and tight supply
Why This Matters: Ontario and BC dominate housing headlines, but they're not the whole story. Smaller markets with better affordability, less exposure to trade wars, and stronger local economies are thriving while the major metros stumble. This is a reminder that opportunities exist outside Toronto and Vancouver, especially in provinces with tighter supply and healthier fundamentals.
😬 2026 Mortgage Renewals Will Hurt
Source: Bloomberg
The 411: Millions of homeowners renewing in 2026 will feel real payment pain, but most are expected to hold on rather than flood the market with distressed listings.
Roughly 1.15 million mortgages across Canada will renew in 2026, many locked in at ultra-low 2021 rates.
Five-year fixed mortgages taken out near 1.6–1.9% are now renewing closer to 4%, pushing monthly payments up 25–30%.
Despite payment shock, experts do not expect a wave of forced selling or a housing bubble burst.
Many owners are choosing to absorb higher payments rather than sell at a loss in a weak market.
Why This Matters: Millions of households will redirect cash from spending, saving, and investing just to cover higher mortgage payments, which quietly drags on the broader economy.
