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Developers Sitting on 2,500+ GTA Condos
Unsold presales pile up, investors get trapped in $16B worth of gated REITs, and Toronto cancellations mount
Today, we’re covering
👀 Thousands of Unsold Condos Lurk Off-Market
😮 Centurion Apartment REIT Limits Redemptions
📈 Where Prices Are Rising in 2025
🫣 Toronto Condo Cancellations Pile Up
🤔 WTF of The Week
Read Time: 4 minutes
👀 Thousands of Unsold Condos Lurk Off-Market
Realtors warn of a growing “shadow market” of unsold presale condo units — properties not listed on MLS but still available.
2,500 units in the GTA and 3,500 in Vancouver are sitting in shadow inventory, compared with 7,000 and 10,000 resale listings, respectively.
Developers used to sell out in presales during the bull market, but with investors retreating and end-users less interested in small condos, many projects now carry unsold stock.
Developers often keep leftovers off MLS to avoid spooking earlier buyers with discounts.
Unlike resale data, presale inventory isn’t tracked publicly, leaving buyers with little visibility into actual supply levels.(source)
Why This Matters: During the heyday of sales in 2019–2021, developers often used a strategy of holding back inventory to resell at higher prices once buildings closed, capitalizing on soaring demand. But with today’s weaker market, that playbook has backfired. If presale leftovers flood the market, condo values could drop further. For buyers hunting a deal, the best opportunities may lie in going directly to developers, who in some cases are offering steep discounts or flash sales to unload unsold inventory.
😮 Centurion Apartment REIT Limits Redemptions
Centurion Apartment REIT manages ~$8B in assets (rental apartments, student housing, mortgages, equity in real estate projects).
For the first time in its history, it has limited redemptions.
Redemptions are capped at $50,000/month for the entire fund.
Other Canadian private funds are also freezing or limiting redemptions.
Romspen ($2.5B fund) gated in late 2022.
Trez Capital halted redemptions on 5 funds ($2.8B).
KingSett halted distributions/redemptions on $1.9B fund.
Why This Matters: Centurion’s redemption limits highlight the liquidity risk in private real estate funds, which promise regular withdrawals but invest in assets that can’t be sold quickly. With over $16B in Canadian funds now gated or restricted, more retail investors are finding themselves “trapped” while still paying fees. The situation raises tough questions about whether these products are being marketed responsibly to everyday investors in a higher-rate environment. (source)