Homes, Offices & Scandals

🏗️ Ontario Builds Only 40% of Needed Homes

• Ontario added 82,000 new homes between June 2023 and June 2024, 40% of the 200,000 homes needed to match population growth.

• Canada’s population increased by 1.2 million last year; over 500,000 homes were needed nationally, with 200,000 in Ontario.

• Ontario has ranked near the bottom in homebuilding per capita over the last six years, finishing eighth among provinces in homes per 100 new residents.

• From January to October 2024, Ontario started 13,000 fewer homes compared to the same period in 2023, while the rest of Canada started 14,000 more.

Why This Matters: Ontario's chronic underbuilding is driving up home prices and rents as demand vastly outpaces supply, worsening affordability and overcrowding. Cities are introducing policy measures like reduced development charges and zoning reforms, but progress is slow, and housing shortages persist.

💸 Vancouver's $45M Real Estate Case Alleges Corruption

• A B.C. Supreme Court case involves $45M worth of real estate across Metro Vancouver, including condos, luxury homes, and rental properties.

• Allegations include fraud, corruption, money laundering, identity deception, and multimillion-dollar misappropriations.

• The Cullen Commission in 2022 reported that billions of illicit dollars flowed annually into B.C. real estate, highlighting the vulnerability of properties to money laundering.

• China’s $50,000 limit on outbound wealth has often been circumvented, and Canadian banks and governments have allegedly neglected to enforce legal fund sourcing.

Why This Matters: Laundered money inflates housing costs by creating artificial demand, particularly in luxury markets, driving up prices across all segments. It distorts market values beyond what local incomes can sustain and exacerbates affordability issues by reducing the available housing supply. Without stricter regulations, illicit funds will continue to push prices higher, making it harder for regular buyers to compete.

🏢 Downtown Calgary Turns Offices Into Homes

• Calgary is revitalizing downtown with office-to-residential conversions, addressing 30% vacancy rates.

• Developers receive up to $75 per square foot to convert offices, with 1 project completed and 10 underway.

• Calgary welcomes 60,000 international and 27,000 interprovincial migrants annually, fueling housing demand.

• The average rent in Calgary is $1,859, much lower than Vancouver’s $2,400, maintaining affordability.

Why This Matters: Calgary’s focus on office-to-residential conversions signals a strong commitment to addressing housing demand and creating new investment opportunities. Compared to Toronto and Vancouver, the city's affordability attracts buyers and renters, driving stable demand.

🏘️ 1 in 5 Homes Delisted Last Month

• 1 in 5 Canadian real estate listings were canceled in December 2024

• Sellers are canceling and re-listing homes, hoping for better conditions in Spring, which could lead to a backlog of inventory.

• New listings dropped by 1.7% in December, while active listings grew 2.0%, highlighting a robust housing supply.

• Long-term bond yields are rising, potentially increasing fixed mortgage rates and undermining the impact of rate cuts.

• Despite surging population growth, the market remains historically weak, with high churn indicating an unsettled housing market.

Why This Matters The high number of delisted homes reveals growing uncertainty among sellers, signaling a potential buildup of inventory heading into the spring market. This could lead to a flood of listings later with future rate cuts, further impacting prices and competition.

🤔 WTF of The Week

But seriously, why is everyone scrambling to buy from people losing money instead of finding solid deals in the resale market?

Buyers aren’t just forfeiting their deposits; they’re taking 20-30% haircuts because these projects were priced on the fantasy of a 30% market gain. Instead, the market’s down 20-40% from the peak.

It’s even worse than it looks. Some folks haven’t just lost their down payments – they’re on the hook for hundreds of thousands more, thanks to lawsuits from builders.

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