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Rate Hikes Coming?
Half of big banks see rate hikes by 2027, developers sit on record inventory and the vacancy tax is being questioned.
Today, we’re covering
🏦 Where Will Rates Go Next?
📦 Developers Stuck With Record Inventory
📉 Nova Scotia Leads Canada’s Price Drop
👷🏽 Trades Jobs Pile Up in Calgary
❓ Is Toronto’s Vacancy Tax Working?
😲 WTF of The Week
Read Time: 5 minutes
🏦 Where Will Rates Go Next?
Source: Canadian Mortgage Trends
The 411: Canada’s biggest banks now agree on one thing and disagree on the part that matters most. While all six expect the Bank of Canada to hold at 2.25% through 2026, they are split down the middle on what comes next.
All Big 6 banks forecast the BoC policy rate holding at 2.25% through 2026
The split begins in 2027, with no clear consensus on direction
3 of 6 banks expect rate hikes once the easing cycle ends:
National Bank: First hike by late 2026, rising to 2.75%
Scotiabank: Gradual increases, reaching 3.00% by end-2027
RBC: Most aggressive outlook, calling for 3.25% by Q4 2027
3 of 6 banks expect rates to stay flat at 2.25% through 2027:
TD, CIBC, BMO
Variable-rate mortgages and HELOCs remain directly exposed to these outcomes through the prime rate
A 25-bp rate move typically changes monthly payments by ~$12.50 per $100,000 of mortgage debt
📊 What do you think happens next with BoC rates? |
