Senior Housing Up, Pre‐Con Down

👴 Seniors Housing Becomes The Hot Asset

Source: Cushman & Wakefield

The 411: Canada’s seniors housing sector is tightening fast, with 93% occupancy, record deal flow, and a massive supply gap that could run well into the 2030s.

• National seniors housing occupancy hit 93% in 2025 and is on track for 95% in 2026.

• Construction starts have stayed below 1% of inventory for three straight years, not even replacing aging stock.

• Investors poured over $2.7B into seniors housing in 2025, with about 70% of deals led by public companies.

• Cap rates are compressing as debt markets stay supportive and more capital chases limited product.

• Cushman & Wakefield expects a new development cycle to kick off in 2026, but new units won’t really hit the market until 2029–2030.

• The market is estimated to need roughly 200,000 new rental units over the next decade just to stay balanced.

Why This Matters: Seniors housing is quietly becoming one of the most attractive cash‑flow plays in Canadian real estate, with rising rents, high occupancy, and almost no new supply in the ground. For investors, this is one of the few asset classes where demand is locked in by demographics rather than vibes, and where the real risk is getting in too late, not too early.

💰 Developer Offers “Price Protection” Guarantee

Source: The Star

The 411: Mattamy Homes is offering buyers in Ontario and Alberta a temporary “Price Protection Program” that refunds them if the base price of their specific model drops before closing.

• Mattamy’s promo runs until March 8 and covers select pre‑con condos and low‑rise homes in the GTA and Alberta.

• If the base price of the same model in the same community is lower 30 days before closing, buyers get a credit for the difference.

• Lot premiums and upgrades don’t count; the comparison is strictly on the base model price, which the developer controls.

• The move comes after GTA new‑home sales hit a 45‑year low and pre‑construction demand “basically died on arrival,” with stalled projects outnumbering active ones.

• Some agents say it’s a smart confidence booster; others call it a publicity stunt that doesn’t protect buyers if the wider market drops.

Why This Matters: When major builders start offering price guarantees, it’s a sign they’re more worried about selling inventory. For end users, this can shave some downside risk, but it doesn’t change the core problem: pre‑con is still priced off yesterday’s boom in a market that’s now full of unsold units.

⛪ What if Canada Turned 1 in 5 Churches into Homes?