Seniors Drive Demand & Mall Mayhem

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👴🏼REITs Bet Big on Retirees

• Canada’s population aged 75 and older is expected to grow 45% to 5.3 million in the next 10 years.

• The senior housing sector is the top-performing real estate sector on the S&P/TSX Composite so far in 2025.

• Shares have risen significantly this year, Sienna Senior Living: +19%, Chartwell Retirement Residences: +20%, Extendicare Inc.: +21%

• Senior housing occupancy projected to hit 92% in 2025, trending toward 95% in 2026.

• 200,000 new senior housing suites needed by 2035; only 73,000 built in the past 10 years, fewer than 10,000 currently under construction.

• Ontario's waitlist for long-term care beds is expected to exceed 50,000 in 2025, double from 10 years ago.

Why It Matters: With aging demographics and few new units, the sector is structurally underbuilt. Pension funds, private equity, and public REITs are actively acquiring assets—projected record-breaking M&A activity in 2025 positions this as a hot sector for capital gains.

🛍️ New Bay Deal Sparks Mall Turmoil

• Oxford Properties Group, the real estate arm of OMERS ($79B AUM), is opposing Ruby Liu’s attempt to take over ~24 Hudson’s Bay leases.

• Oxford says the deal threatens the value of key mall assets

• Lease terms range from 49 to 65 years, making the choice of anchor tenant critical for long-term value

• Ruby Liu, a B.C. billionaire with 3 malls and a golf course, wants to launch a new department store brand using Bay’s former spaces

• Liu claims she will hire 1,800 staff, open most stores within 180 days, and spend $325M to launch the concept

• Oxford and other landlords (Morguard, Primaris, Cadillac Fairview) argue that Liu provided no financial statements, her timeline is unrealistic, and her plans are "deficient, superficial, and puerile.

Why It Matters: Anchor tenants make or break malls. If Ruby Liu’s flashy but untested department store flops, it could drag down property values and tenant retention, hurting pension-backed landlords like Oxford.

📈Edmonton Listings Surge as Sales Slip